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        小学生日记 - 课外知识 - 教学方法 - 小学生作文 小学作文大全_小学生日记网——www.crgg168.com
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        韩国训练能预测厄尔尼诺的深度学习方法 预测时间可提前一年半

        时间:2019-09-25 15:15 来源:小学生作文网 作者:小学生作文网 阅读:

        9月19日讯,目前厄尔尼诺事件被认为无法准确预测,但据英国《自然》杂志18日发表的一项人工智能(AI)与气候学研究,韩国科学家报告了一种可以提前一年半预测厄尔尼诺事件的深度学习方法,克服了该领域长期存在的一项挑战。

        厄尔尼诺—南方涛动是地球上影响力最大的气候变化,并随着全球变暖而出现得越来越频繁。厄尔尼诺事件发生于太平洋东部和中部,已知其会引起极端气候,对当地生态系统造成严重损害。但现阶段,科学家对其部分相关模型无法达成统一,这意味着全球变暖对于厄尔尼诺事件的影响依然不甚明确,对这些事件进行准确判断一直以来困难重重。以往传统的气候预测方法,无法提供超过一年的准确预测。

        厄尔尼诺的全过程分为发生期、发展期、维持期和衰减期,历时一般一年左右,大气的变化滞后于海水温度的变化。厄尔尼诺现象是周期性出现的,大约每隔2-7年出现一次。从我国6-8月主要雨带位置来看,在75%的厄尔尼诺年内,夏季雨带位置在江、淮流域。形象一点说,热带地区大气环流的低频振荡可比作是热带地区的心脏跳动,厄尔尼诺事件的发生就好象是热带地区得了一个心脏病,使得规律性的低频振荡出现了异常现象。

        此次,韩国全南国立大学研究团队训练了一种能够预测厄尔尼诺事件的深度学习方法。该模型利用1871年至1973年的历史气候数据,以及厄尔尼诺事件的模拟数据进行训练,并通过1984年至2017年的数据进行测试。

        与现行的气候预测方法相比,该深度学习算法的预测准确性更高,预测时间最多可提前一年半。研究团队还能借此预测某一厄尔尼诺事件是发生于太平洋中部还是东部,并在其发生之前鉴定海面温度变化。

        厄尔尼诺事件的发生对全球各地区的气候灾害均有预兆意义,因此对它的监测已成为气候预测中最重要内容之一。研究人员表示,此次新方法提供的预测结果,将帮助政府和相关机构制定政策,应对厄尔尼诺的影响。

        标签:厄尔尼诺预测深度学习

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